110 ordspråk av David Rosenberg

David Rosenberg

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Equity markets [are] getting clobbered everywhere, especially in emerging markets ... bonds in the process of catching a safety bid.

Fed action is not a fait accompli -- weakness might have to extend through the second half to lead to a Fed cut.

For an economy addicted to credit ... periodic interest rate spasms of the likes we are seeing today could easily derail the nascent turnaround from the 'growth recession' of the past nine months.

For every pricing power story the Fed hawks and bond bears can find, we can probably match in the opposite direction.

For now we are assuming that the energy shock will dominate, suppressing growth in both 2005 and 2006. And the implications for earnings are negative.

For the first time in 18 years, we managed to get through one of these semiannual congressional testimonies without a bottle of Advil in one hand and a Thesaurus in the other.

Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.

has stopped bleeding ... a hiring spree in 2003 looks like a low-odds bet.

Has the roof collapsed? You get trends like this at the tail-end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle, and what follows next is either a soft or hard landing in the broad economy.

Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.

I believe the Fed is in overshoot territory.

I don't want to get too carried away by a 25-basis point move,

I don't want to get too carried away by a 25-basis-point move,

I think it does complicate the rate hike picture and the near-term interest rate outlook.

I think that the U.S. consumer is hot to trot, ... I think you're looking at a first quarter that's going to easily top 10 percent (in retail sales increase) on an annualized basis.

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