I think that the U.S. consumer is hot to trot. I think you're looking at a first quarter that's going to easily top 10 percent (in retail sales increase) on an annualized basis. |
I thought this was the most amazing thing you could do for people. |
I'm not seeing any sort of big broadening out of inflation from the energy side. That's probably the overriding story. |
If CEOs are just frozen in fear, ... who's going to go on a spending spree. |
If the [dollar] decline is not orderly and triggers heightened inflation expectations and higher interest rates, equities will have trouble. |
If the divergence between sales and inventories continues, the inventory-to-sales ratio will breach the critical five months' supply threshold by year-end, ... Price action is sure to follow. |
If the economy continues to muddle through at around 2 percent annualized growth, we could very well slip into deflation in the next two years, |
If the economy continues to muddle through at around 2 percent annualized growth, we could very well slip into deflation in the next two years. |
If the Fed is truly data dependent, then what matters most...is the data flow for the second quarter. What do we know about the second quarter? Well, not that much, but what we do know suggests a slowing to around a 2.5% annual rate. |
Investors should be focused on regions where there are healthy balance sheets and high personal savings rates. Areas where there will be appreciating currencies, where there is pent-up demand and where there is an ability among policy makers to spur that pent-up demand. |
It is basically a subtle way to flash to the market that the negative economic consequences are resonating and that the Fed may not just look at this as a temporary soft patch this time. |
It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs, ... But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose. |
It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs. But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose. |
It's a very strange mix, ... It may signal some kind of slowing, but I think I'd have to see a lot more evidence of that. It doesn't appear that consumer consumption is slowing in any meaningful way. |
It's more of a margin squeeze. |