The only reason I'm calling for a rate hike is because that's what they told us they are going to do. |
The primary driver of this slowing is consumer spending. Spending will be hurt by continued elevated energy prices and a slowing in housing. |
The question must be asked as to what psychological impact there may be from this oft-cited [number] ... upon consumer sentiment. The unemployment rate and inflation are the most important determinants of consumer sentiment. |
The SARS virus may not have much of a direct impact on U.S. growth -- though we would look for some spillover to the consumer confidence data. |
The whole view that this was going to be over quickly and it would be off to the races was just pie in the sky. My sense is that this could easily drag on for months. At what point does that hit people like a two-by-four? |
There are more headwinds than tailwinds, |
There is a historical pattern that everyone should be aware of because each of the past three newly appointed Fed chairman began their tenure with a quick succession of interest rate hikes. |
There is going to be near-term inflation. Is it going to be sustained? I doubt it. |
There is no doubt that when I speak to hedge funds and real-money investors, they have some questions. They say that he has to prove his credentials right away. |
There is no question that these are trends that are going to add to people's anxiety and the process has already started. |
There is the pre-Katrina economy and the post-Katrina economy. Any number that's going to be important for stocks and bonds is not going to be in government reports. The most important data near-term are going to be energy futures. Those are going to be key indicators as far as interest rates are concerned. |
There's nothing in the tea leaves telling us we'll be seeing much labor-market buoyancy for several months. |
These increases were in a sense artificially produced by shifting incentives as auto companies try to back away from incentives and instead lower sticker prices. |
This has nothing to do with whether the yield is too high or too low or whether it's over or undervalued. And it certainly has nothing to with foreign central bank activity. It's about the business cycle. |
This would provide the Fed some flexibility regarding future meetings. |