The only complaint about Monday's move is that it was on fairly narrow breadth ... but that shouldn't take away from what's been an entirely impressive run by the TSE, both this month and this year. |
The overriding story for the equity market Thursday was the exuberant reaction to Mr. Greenspan's latest musings, |
The overriding story for the equity market Thursday was the exuberant reaction to Mr. Greenspan's latest musings. |
The overwhelming view is that the bank will continue to raise interest rates, despite the latest strength in the Canadian dollar. |
The recovery in the global financial backdrop is a key part of the outlook for tightening, |
The strong Canadian dollar does not seem to be an impediment to further rate hikes ... at least not yet. |
The unemployment report will be a big one, ... An indication that job growth is still going gangbusters is going to make the market even more weary of a rate hike. |
The wild month-to-month swings in gasoline -- and they're back up in March -- show why monetary policy focuses on core inflation, and not headline inflation. |
There are a lot of mouths they want to feed. |
There is a bit of risk because it will probably pump up real retail sales ... from all the various tax cuts. |
There was a strong hint in their latest minutes that they're talking about half percentage point moves in interest rates rather than just these baby steps of a quarter percentage point move. |
There's been a slight upward revision of expectations for Fed tightening, which would keep the spread between rates locked in. The earlier view was that the spread might narrow. |
These together will probably increase consumer spending and at the margin . . . it will put a bit of upward pressure on growth and could potentially put that much more pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. |
They ... continue to drum home the point that this isn't going to be a huge extended tightening cycle with them pointing out, yet again, the risks beyond 2006. |
They'll basically grin and bear it. Well, maybe they won't grin, but they'll bear it, |