An uncertain election will do that -- people don't know who the president will be, what's ahead. |
Both new and existing home sale prices over the past few months have already been trending downward. Prices will continue to feel downward pressure as more and more units are posted for sale in the marketplace. |
Consumers are experiencing very strong income gains and that's helping them deal with these gas prices a little better. It's providing quite a cushion. |
Consumers have access to cash. They took out a record $804 billion in mortgage equity withdrawals in the third quarter. |
Core prices are at a little higher pace than the Fed is comfortable with, but they're certainly not out of bounds, and the interest rate increases over the past year and a half have kept inflation relatively low. |
Core prices are going to continue to edge a little higher. The extreme increases in energy and commodity costs that we've had are going to seep through to the core. Core prices worry the Fed. |
Economists all realize this number is not a big deal, but people will be trading on the number this week whether it's a big deal or not. |
energy and oil prices are on the minds of the non-manufacturing businesses. |
I think it is a critical number. It's one of the first readings we get on consumer confidence post-Katrina. |
If anything, this confirms the Fed's bias towards inflation rather than worrying about a slow down in growth. The Fed seems to have no worries about growth, as least as far as manufacturing is measured by ISM. |
It's going to be a big week for economic data, but a lot of it will be compromised by so-called seasonal adjustments. The warm weather in January may cause some unforeseen swings in the data, making it look rosier than it would have been otherwise, and that could cause some volatility in the markets as well. |
It's not a bad number. |
It's not a coincidence that commodities prices are increasing simultaneously with capacity utilization. |
Measures of consumer perceptions should be watched carefully for large and drastic moves, but the analyst who relies on small moves for an indication of consumer purchasing behavior is likely to get burned. |
Single family housing starts, which correlate closely with changes in average mortgage rates, remain robust for now, ... We should start to see this series moderate in future months as higher mortgage rates keep a lid on borrower interest. However, mortgage rates have plenty of room to move before they even reach pre-recession levels. As a result, we may not see a slowdown in housing construction until the autumn months of this year. |