Single family starts will likely remain elevated until we see a significant increase in long term interest rates. |
Some companies have pulled ahead [of] spending, at least on the short term, ... That could help the fourth quarter number. I think the fourth quarter might surprise us on the upside, coming in somewhere between 3.6 percent and 4.0 percent growth. But we've got a general slowdown coming -- we're forecasting 3.2 percent growth for all of 2005. |
Some companies have pulled ahead [of] spending, at least on the short term. That could help the fourth quarter number. I think the fourth quarter might surprise us on the upside, coming in somewhere between 3.6 percent and 4.0 percent growth. But we've got a general slowdown coming -- we're forecasting 3.2 percent growth for all of 2005. |
Sometimes, we're wondering what we can do to help and unfortunately, these people are going through a difficult time. It's a small part we can play. At least it's something we can do. |
The 2002 holiday season will likely be a moderate one, not blowing away modest expectations, but not disappointing them either. |
The biggest item affecting trading next week will be the consumer price index, because everybody wants to determine how far the Fed will go. And the forward forecasts of the retailers are worth watching as well, because consumers are going to face greater constraints this year due to higher interest rates and a slowing housing market. |
The outsized decline in starts in November is a bit confusing given the steady and elevated pace of permitting over the last several months. |
The underlying labor market is probably about the same, with claims in the 300,000 to 320,000 range and job creation of 180,000 to 200,000 a month. |
We expect interest rates to continue rising and home prices to rise at a slower pace in the year ahead. This combination makes withdrawal of mortgage equity a less likely source of funds for consumers in the future. |
We're basically guessing how the BLS adjusts for Katrina, which is an even bigger stretch than we normally have to do. |
We're consistently breaking records with this report, and just about every month is bigger than expected, so I don't think there's any great change to the story. |
We're going to fill up all of our buses, and hopefully, we'll bring them up and if we have to go back down there and pick up another group of people, we'll just keep going until they don't need our help anymore. |