343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,

This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,

[This is] a significant downside shock, and perhaps a sign falling consumer sentiment is rattling companies, ... A further drop next month will see the [Federal Reserve] easing again.

Now the question is whether sales can hold up in the face of lower consumer confidence,

A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,

It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.

The improvement in the stock market is allowing the hugely favorable monetary and fiscal environment to do its work -- just as it was in the spring before the stock market melted down,

Overall, the recent sales data appear to point to a renewed upturn in spending.

The chairman will likely tell the House Budget Committee that conditions are set for recovery.

We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,

This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,

This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.

Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.

This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,

At its current level, [confidence] is consistent with real consumers' spending growth of about 3 percent -- not great, but not a double-dip.

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