343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,

This [report] suggests strongly that the distortions caused by the provisions of the March economic stimulus package are now fading and that the underlying -- downward -- trend in claims is starting to re-emerge,

The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.

Core prices remain very subdued, and core pipeline pressure is non-existent, ... There is no [inflation] threat here for the foreseeable future.

There is no near-term inflation threat here,

Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.

People have plenty of cash - and the inclination to spend it,

Expectations had risen a bit too far, too fast, and were vulnerable to a correction; this is it.

Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.

No more easing [is] needed here.

This is the first official acknowledgment that the economy is beginning to improve.

We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.

If we had any faith in the reliability of these numbers, we'd have to call them disappointing, ... But we don't, so we won't.

Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.

The Fed is nearly done. The U.S. economy is coming back.

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