343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November.

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.

There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.

There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed; he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn,

There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.

There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend [of claims] is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline [in the number of claims].

These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances,

These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances.

These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.

These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,

These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates, ... Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.

These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.

they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.

Things will likely get worse before they get better.

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