The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous, |
The wage story is gathering momentum. No wonder the Fed is concerned. |
The wage story is gathering real momentum. The Fed is going to 5%, and more if housing does not collapse by mid-year. |
There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey. |
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good. |
There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes, |
There is at least some light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately it is still a long way off, |
There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near. |
There is no chance of a spontaneous slowing in home sales. The market will soften if -- and only if -- mortgage rates rise significantly. |
There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing, |
There is no near-term inflation threat here, |
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales. |
There is nothing here that looks remotely inflationary, |
There is nothing in the statement to suggest they're done. |
There is nothing to be scared of here. When you take out several one-time gains including apparel, tobacco and lodging, prices were almost unchanged. |