343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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At least [economic activity] is no longer 'decelerating,' as reported in the previous beige book,

At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.

Auto sales did not fall as far as the unit sales numbers suggested. This means there'll probably be a catch-up -- downwards -- next month.

Bear in mind this survey is always more volatile than the ISM, and there may be an outsized July 4 long weekend effect, too. But these are bad numbers.

Behind the enormous distortions caused by the hurricanes, the underlying state of the labor market has continued to improve.

Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.

Both the unemployment rate and wages were stronger than consensus and they clearly make it very difficult for the Fed not to raise rates by [a half percentage point].

By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,

Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.

Claims fell because the initial wave of job losses after Sept. 11th is fading.

Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.

Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly,

Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.

Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.

Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.

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