343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers, like those seen recently, would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.

It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.

We think the relief is temporary; no other data supports the slowdown story,

Eventually, the housing slowdown will affect retail sales too, but that is probably a story for the spring of next year, at the earliest.

There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed; he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn,

The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,

Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.

The bottom line: This greatly improves the chance of positive fourth-quarter GDP (gross domestic product). The Fed is nearly done, ... The U.S. economy is coming back.

At least [economic activity] is no longer 'decelerating,' as reported in the previous beige book,

The Fed's Beige Book acknowledges some of the improvement evident in recent economic data, but the tone of the survey could not yet be described as a ringing endorsement of the recovery story,

The Fed can and will be much more of an active player in the stock market until it turns the corner,

Our guess now is that there will be some incremental decay of consumers' expectations, especially in the New York area, but it will not be sufficient to upset our basic recovery story,

Every turning point has to start somewhere, and the evidence on the industrial sector is becoming overwhelming.

This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.

Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.

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