343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.

The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis. There are no real signs of a slowdown.

Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue.

The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.

As far as we can tell, just about everyone now expects another 25-basis-point hike on May 16, which rather begs the question why the Fed did not act more boldly today and raise rates by 50 basis points. By the time of the May meeting, a bigger move might be forced upon the FOMC.

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.

Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers like those seen recently would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices. Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.

It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained. The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.

These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22.

This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound.

This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first. For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.

If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997.

Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us. Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.

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