is going to hurt the bond market more. |
It doesn't look like from what we are seeing this morning that the economy is recessionary, and now it's probably going to cast some doubt on how aggressive the Fed is going to want to be from here, |
It feels like the slide is tapering off, |
It feels like the slide is tapering off. |
It looks like it may be fairly lacking in volatility for the next few days, (with yields) struggling around six percent, ... But I think that some of the bigger players are going to be selling when the bond dips below 6 percent, because they see down the road that the Fed's going to be tested again and again about the imbalances in the economy which haven't gone away. |
It really comes down to the fact that the Fed is saying demand is excessive, ... Until they see enough cooling (of the economy) there's potential for more rate hikes. |
NAPM could be quite strong, |
NAPM could be quite strong. |
Strength in productivity is one main reason (that is) keeping inflation low, ... It has shifted the focus back to the economy - maybe the economy can grow at such strength without inflation. |
The bottom line is, agencies will maintain their highest credit rating. Agencies are looking like pretty good value. |
The Chicago PMI sent us back to near the lows, though we had seen the bond market handling some heavy selling before then, |
The Chicago PMI sent us back to near the lows, though we had seen the bond market handling some heavy selling before then. |
The economic numbers didn't really have an affect on the (bond) market, ... Housing starts were strong, but . . . the market was already reaching support in the softer stock market and softer manufacturing numbers. |
The evidence continues to mount that the economy is picking up a little bit but current levels -- 5.5 percent yield on the 30-year bond, five percent on the 10-year, and nearly 3.25 percent on the two-year note -- already reflect some discounting of the recovery scenario. |
The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points in September and then, because inflation pressures are contained, they pause for a while, skipping a move in November and maybe even December. The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory. |