The initial excitement wore off. People were positioned for it, |
The initial excitement wore off. People were positioned for it. |
The market took the report in context -- which is that it is often distorted by aircraft orders. It didn't really ignite the bond bulls that the headline number was down so much. |
The market's starting to look further ahead. There seems to be the sentiment that the economy will cool and the Fed (once it hikes interest rates later this month) will be done. |
The new weakness, which is probably related to the hurricane and oil, definitely set in, ... But this number was a classic dilemma for the market, because the prices paid really rocketed higher. |
The new weakness, which is probably related to the hurricane and oil, definitely set in. But this number was a classic dilemma for the market, because the prices paid really rocketed higher. |
The view is that the market could withstand a 25 basis point rate hike. |
There are fears the data will be strong and Greenspan will lay the groundwork for tightening. In that environment, how do you bring in buyers? |
There's concern for how the stock market has done recently. I do think bond traders have their eye on the stock market. |
This is always a difficult number for the market to deal with. |
We don't know enough about him to know whether there might be a surprise attack so there is some caution. But overall, the 10-year yield has been in a range of 4 5/8 to 4 /12 for weeks and today, we're right in the middle of that range. |
We don't look at this number and say it's the end of manufacturing strength. Still, it hasn't hurt the bond market. |
We saw moderation in the indices on prices paid, employment, and six-month business conditions outlook. That offset the impact of the headline number. |
We should still have a pretty good quarter for consumer spending. January retail sales, excluding autos, were very strong. |
We still need to keep the inflation pressures from building or there will be a problem in the future. |