(This report is a) little bit bearish in terms of expectations, |
(This report is a) little bit bearish in terms of expectations. |
[Meanwhile Chavez is picking fights with foreign oil companies — including Shell, ExxonMobil, Repsol YPF, Chevron, BP, and Total that have been working in Venezuela for years. Thirty-two publicly traded oil companies are accused of owing Venezuela $4 billion in back taxes for overproduction — something they deny. This follows Venezuela's hikes in production royalties from 1% to 16.7% in October, hikes in taxes on operating agreements from 32% to 50% in April, and a declared end to contracted dollar payments to foreign oil field operators in May.] The desire to operate in Venezuela, ... is fading fast. |
A larger-than-expected decline in crude oil may spook the market. There is a strong historical trend for inventories to fall at the end of the year, although it hasn't happened yet. Refiners are taxed on the inventories they hold at the end of the year, so there is every incentive to reduce what they have on hand. |
Although the U.S. weather remains relatively bearish, the market is moving higher. There seems to be little fundamental reason for the move as Russian gas supplies to Europe are resuming. However, fear of a possible future disruption is probably a driver. |
Concern about Iran resuming nuclear processing seems to be the only driver. U.S. weather remains bearish for the next two weeks. |
Crude hasn't been responding to fundamentals all year. I think crude has been $8 to $10 overvalued for some time and has been responding to the fear of what could happen rather than the reality of what is happening. |
Distillate inventories were up slightly but are not rising at a normal pace, so that is a little bit concerning, |
Distillate inventories were up slightly but are not rising at a normal pace, so that is a little bit concerning. |
Fear is the driver and remains so. It is not considered likely that any oil flow from Iran is disrupted, but it is possible. |
Gasoline inventories are tighter than they were a few weeks ago. It's all about perception, because inventories are well above where they have been in previous years. |
I believe that the speculators' role has been the introduction of more buyers ... it has actually added a degree to the overall price. I personally think it's in the order of $5 to $10 a barrel. Is there any way to prove it? Absolutely not. |
I think it could be at $100 before you blinked. Eighty dollars or $90 is just a headline away. |
Inventories are actually still 7 million barrels above the three-year average. Once these refineries start cranking back up, I think you'll see supplies rise pretty quickly. |
Iran is driving it today, throwing jitters into the market. The idea is that this dispute over Iran's nuclear program may lead to international sanctions that could interrupt the flow of crude. |