From now on, strong economic numbers threaten another rate hike. Weak numbers point to profit disappointments. What the bull market needs is a catalyst, which would likely need to be a break in energy and basic materials prices. |
Had it not been for the impressive January same-store sales reports, decent forward-looking statements and the big drop in energy prices, the market drop would have been far worse. With the understanding that we needed to keep our eyes on wage pressures and productivity, both of those components suddenly soured investors on the idea that the Fed was truly done. |
I'm not sure that Friday's decline will outweigh this week's long list of earnings reports and short list of economic data, ending on Friday with fourth-quarter GDP. Crude is making investors nervous, and by the end of the week, the FOMC meeting on the following Tuesday will also be a major cause for concern. |
If you're down 10 percent and you time it appropriately, then you could be up 18 percent at the end of the year as opposed to 8 percent. That's why I'd look at whether the economic signals corroborate the technical signals. |
If you're going into the worst year of a four-year cycle and heading into one of the worst months statistically of the year, then it seems like a likely opportunity for the market to see its 10 percent correction. |
In the last month the market moved up despite rising interest rates and despite higher oil prices, focusing instead on the upcoming earnings season. |
In the war of rates vs. oil, one would have to say that oil is winning out. Concerns of further rate increases are coming to fruition, yet the market has continued to push higher. Energy prices have fallen quickly and have taken out several trading support levels. |
Internally, the market's bounce left something to be desired. Since the market went out on the high of the day, it should have some morning momentum left. The real question is whether or not it can be sustained without any major earnings-, economic-, or oil-moving news. |
It is a domino effect of negative news. |
It looks like some seasonal New Year's buying will give the market a bullish start, but this January faces many negative technical obstacles. |
It will impact the Dow but on broader basis it won't do much to the market. I think there are much bigger factors today such as the semiconductor index above its 200-day moving average and it faces some cautious comments out of Merrill, |
It will take some strong earnings and bullish forecasts, as well as positive economic data, to keep the rally going. There are plenty of economic data and earnings releases to sway market opinion from hour to hour and day to day. Behind it all, there is the rising threat of geopolitical tensions with Iran and higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve. |
It's a little bit (bond) positive because GDP did rise as expected. |
It's going to come down to how sales are pre-Christmas, what we hear from the retail sector, ... I would expect next week, while remaining positive, to have not as robust a move as we saw this week. |
It's probably going to be the one event in the afternoon that sets the tone for how we finish. |