The market is down as crude prices are up because of the approaching hurricane, which could hurt production, and then tomorrow's FOMC meeting is also going to be important, ... I think the Fed will do 25 basis points but then the commentary will be important and they have to open the door to a rate pause. |
The market will be swimming upstream against a small current. We are still seeing a market rally that has not broken any key technical supports, but there are crack in the foundation. If they start to see selling on the news by the end of the day, that, too, is a warning sign that this rally is nearing an end. |
The momentum has swung in favor of the bulls, but we need to keep it going or it will look like another failed attempt at new high ground. |
The negative productivity number we saw today about the fourth quarter raises fears that companies are not going to be able to absorb those costs. |
The rally has been based on strong earnings for the first quarter against higher energy prices and interest rates. That's the battle. And earnings tend to win out in April, historically. |
The Santa Claus rally is clearly underway. I expect to see the bulls carry the averages to new 4 1/2 year highs right into next Friday's close. |
There is no question that the tone has turned more positive. We haven't broken out yet, but the markets are poised. Now all we need is for the news to hit the ball out of the park, and it needs to be perfect. Crude is still high and the yield curve is still flat, but the market's focus is on other things right now. |
There is very little economic news out this week, and nothing is due out today. All eyes are on the Fed. |
There was so much expectation built in for the stock ... I think that the expectations were about as high as they could get for it. I think it was a case of buy on the rumor and sell on the news. |
These were reassuring statements by the Fed, ... I think what the market ultimately fears is inflation. What makes assets worth less in the long run is inflation. What the Fed is effectively saying is, 'We won't let prices get out of control.' |
This morning stocks are looking to start the day slightly lower. |
Those very short-term support levels were broken yesterday, but the supports under the current levels are substantial. Now that the Fed has made it clear that we will see one if not two more rate hikes, the uncertainty has been removed. We expect the focus to shift to first-quarter earnings results, and they are expected to be good. |
Today, we're keeping an eye on the same old catalysts, rates and crude. The drop in interest rates overshadowed a rise in crude [Tuesday] . However, crude is still well entrenched in its trading range, on a long-term basis. |
We are facing a large number of Katrina-related warnings, ... The market is just coming to realize that it is going to be a tough September. |
We're not going to feel the impact of these rate hikes for quite some time. |