Do you have to be reeducated? Maybe not -- maybe you just need to accept a lower wage rate. |
Economists are notoriously bad at predicting turning points. They're like credit ratings agencies, they don't anticipate things very well. |
Even without the fraud, ... return on capital has been plumbing the depths, the United States is at war, government spending exploding to the upside and we're imposing tariffs on steel and lumber. What's to like? |
Even without the latest scare, households are retrenching and will continue to do so, especially in the first half, |
Every time we think the bond market is acting irrationally, we usually find out a month or two later that it was rational, that some people participating in the bond market knew more than most of us economists did -- which is not really a great feat. |
Exports are rising, and exports are likely to continue to do better as we move through the second half because of recovering economies abroad, ... So I think this really, especially with the inventories, sets up for a strong rebound in third quarter GDP, conservatively something along the lines of 3.75 percent. |
Exports are rising, and exports are likely to continue to do better as we move through the second half because of recovering economies abroad. So I think this really, especially with the inventories, sets up for a strong rebound in third quarter GDP, conservatively something along the lines of 3.75 percent. |
For the [Bush] administration, Hubbard is a good soldier, he's out there being a cheerleader; and the Fed says everything's OK. But you can't see their hands behind their backs, with their fingers crossed. |
Given all the other spending we're having to do for homeland defense and the military, my suspicion is that inflation is going to be higher than what the White House thinks and probably what [economists in the] Blue Chip [survey] and Congress think as well. Historically, when we've seen a pickup in government spending concentrated in military spending, you tend to get somewhat higher inflation. |
He goes up to Congress, and they ask him questions about everything except monetary policy. It's unprecedented that a central banker is sort of viewed as an omniscient economic policy czar. It's not his responsibility. |
Historically, movements like this have led to a slowdown in economic activity. While the relationship between money supply and economic growth has deteriorated, the basic qualitative relationship seems to have held up pretty well, so this is of some concern. |
Households have not meaningfully repaired their balance sheets since the onset of the last recession, ... Households are not 'better positioned' than they were earlier to boost outlays as their wariness about the economic environment abates. If anything, they are more poorly positioned to do so. |
Households have not meaningfully repaired their balance sheets since the onset of the last recession. Households are not 'better positioned' than they were earlier to boost outlays as their wariness about the economic environment abates. If anything, they are more poorly positioned to do so. |
Housing has gotten very expensive relative to income. |
I agree with Gross. It's been refinancing of mortgages -- basically eating into one's seed corn -- that has been sustaining consumer spending. When that peters out, it's not clear what's going to kick in. |