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Paul Kasriel

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measure of the financial deficit that households are running at an annualized rate.

Nobody wants a strong currency, and since the U.S. currency is fundamentally weak, foreign central banks need to buy up dollars to keep their currency from appreciating.

Not surprisingly, we're starting to see weakening demand.

Nothing seems to be going quite right. We're not seeing mass defections. The weather has been bad. Frustrations are starting to build that this might be going into a less antiseptic phase.

Now, of course, a lot of it ... was in auto sales and production is probably going to flatten out in the months ahead.

O'Neill was like the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers playing in a dome -- they can't hear signals. O'Neill couldn't hear the signals the White House was sending, and they got rid of him. Presumably, Snow has better hearing.

Oddly enough, corporations are lending to the government sector and to the household sector to finance our spending. That's not really a good mix. What leads to growth for our economy is business investment.

OPEC doesn't suffer from money illusion. It decided they want an honest dollar for an honest barrel of oil.

People need to reload here -- they can't buy a car every month. But don't fret, because we're going to get a big tax refund next year, and that will cause spending to pick back up.

Rising bond yields would hurt the housing market. Unless incomes pick up to offset higher financing, you're going to have a problem.

Since central banks aren't letting their currencies appreciate against the dollar, that implies that all the currencies will depreciate against gold and commodities in general.

Sustained economic growth is dependent on profit growth. Without profits, there will be no new hiring of workers and no new capital spending.

That, plus the fact that the Bank of Japan won't be buying as many Treasury and agency securities, will put upward pressure on rates.

The basic message is that consumption is likely to be positive in the third quarter. We're looking at most likely another quarter of relatively modest consumer spending, but positive nonetheless.

The creation of credit by the Fed, just like the scrip printed by a counterfeiter, does not result in the increased supply of energy.

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