The rest of the world has been saving so that we can spend more. We need to save and let the rest of the world spend more. |
The steel tariff cost more jobs than it saved and I'm sure this Chinese bra ban will also contribute to net job losses. |
The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy. |
There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go, |
There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go. |
There are some of us who believe he aided and abetted some asset bubbles. |
There may be somebody else taking the baton now, which is not unusual in a recovery. Housing is typically the leader out of the desert to the promised land; but, just like Moses didn't make it to the promised land, as rates rise, housing doesn't quite make it, either. Other sectors do. |
There's nothing to suggest that payrolls are going to be particularly weak or strong. That's why the consensus estimate is so close to the average of the past six months. |
These are supply-side effects. A president has more to do with supply-side policies and effects than demand-side effects. |
Things are improving overseas, |
This is a warning signal ... that we are on recession watch now. |
This is different than the 1973 gasoline spike, |
This is something that people who keep raising their forecasts for 2004 GDP should be concerned about, ... If households are going to stop spending, then businesses won't continue to spend. |
This is something that people who keep raising their forecasts for 2004 GDP should be concerned about. If households are going to stop spending, then businesses won't continue to spend. |
This reflects the low interest rates we saw earlier in the summer. While I wouldn't say that a major contraction is imminent yet, I suspect this is close to being the last hurrah. |