195 ordspråk av Ray Neidl

Ray Neidl

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In worst case the company caves completely to the union,

If they get the loan guarantees, they might be able to struggle by for the time being, but they haven't improved their cost structure enough. Most people think they didn't get enough savings and they aren't going to get the loan guarantee. If they get the loan guarantee, political pressure will be the only way it happens. It's a Hail Mary pass.

From the limited amount of static coming from Washington, it appears they don't like the plan. I'd have to say there's a probability of a bankruptcy at this point. There's too many hoops to jump through and not enough time.

There's no reason other than covering a short position to buy shares. It's either that or stupid money,

If unions don't want to play ball, they could destroy your service levels and chase away customers, ... You're also not sure you'll get the changes in the contract from the judge. You're much better off if everyone could get it together.

I think they're just looking at every option available out there. But if we're running a real gauntlet talking about any airline merger in this atmosphere, that one (between American and Delta) runs a bigger gauntlet.

I think that's what they'd want to do, and that's why they're all rushing.

They'd be breaking new ground.

With globalization and the rate we're going at, it could happen as soon as three to five years. I don't think it's ready for prime time. A lot of things have to be cleared up before that happens.

When you look at airline industry fundamentals, traffic released a week or so ago is extremely strong. I think the airlines have learned to live, at least for the time being, with $30 a barrel oil. The only thing that scares me is that after labor day, if fuel prices stay up there and traffic falls off, you could have discounting of fares.

I don't think American would have extended unless they got assurances from union leadership they had the votes. It was a flawed process to begin with.

The cover-up is usually worse than the sin. The union leaders were embarrassed and understandably so. Don was a sacrificial lamb. He made a mistake and he's paying the price. It's unfortunate because American is losing a really seasoned executive.

This summer is going to be crucial. If this summer is worse than expected, we could have new talk of bankruptcy in the fall. Even if it's good, I don't see them returning to profitability until the third quarter of next year at [the] earliest.

The [big] carriers are unfairly being hit with some of the increased security costs, but even absent that, the losses would be pretty close to where they are now with or without 9/11. This was something going to happen to [them] no matter what happened.

I'm looking for a 15 percent pull back sometime this fall. It's not necessarily too late, but I might be a bit cautious getting in right now.

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