78 ordspråk av Stephen Roach

Stephen Roach

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[For all of China's efforts to create a vibrant domestic market, its economy is highly dependent on exports. China's economic model these days] is very much a levered play on the staying power of the overly extended American consumer, ... That's a tough place to be for any economy in an energy shock - even China.

[Inflation] is starting to broaden out; it's starting to move up a little bit, ... The Fed certainly has to be concerned about that.

[This] is just another nail in the coffin for the world economy.

2005 was a year that has lulled a lot of investors, policymakers and government officials into a dangerous and false sense of complacency.

An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era,

An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.

As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.

Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.

By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.

China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.

China's senior leadership gets it while many outside the country do not.

Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.

Conventional wisdom has it that globalization is a win-win but that is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. There is no escaping the concerns that workers in high-wage countries have.

Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..

For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.

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