78 ordspråk av Stephen Roach

Stephen Roach

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There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected,

There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.

This is the year to watch out carefully for the end of the great American spending binge.

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters. That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.

To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.

Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.

Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.

Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,

We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,

We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.

When he leaves ... he will take away 18 years of confidence the markets have invested in him.

Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay?

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