that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way. |
That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn. |
The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates. |
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that, |
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that. |
The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble. |
The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge. |
The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring. |
The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for. |
The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone. |
The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security. |
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a U.S.-centric global economy. |
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a US-centric global economy. |
The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong. |
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy. |