187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.

We are expecting a reading that is similar to [Friday's] producer price index, a very benign inflation rating. Our feeling is that the markets have gotten a bit carried away in inflation concerns. They've heard Greenspan say that inflation [is showing up on the radar screen] and they're waiting for it to show up any day now. But the inflationary picture remains just as good as ever.

should show signs of stabilizing.

What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'

We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.

The one thing that companies can do quickly without laying people off is reduce the number of hours per week; as the economy slows, that's the natural place for a company to cut back. It's a little harder to pull back quickly on job hiring.

The surplus creates an environment where there's a tremendous amount of saving being freed up for private investment every time the government pays down its debt, that frees funds to flow into private investments. That has created this strong growth economy that we have.

But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.

Obviously we have a pretty weak economy and this was not unexpected. We knew they were going to have to revise it downward.

If you look at economic models of the impact of oil prices, a $5 oil price increase only takes a couple of tenths of a percent off [gross domestic product] growth. Things have to get a lot worse before this becomes a major shock to the U.S. economy.

It suggests moderate growth in the year ahead, but I don't think there's much risk of a 'double-dip' recession.

This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.

It's not as friendly as some of the other inflation numbers, but it's just one indicator. We have no inflation warning signals from any of the other major inflation indicators.

The market is kind of like a four-year old kid in a toy store,

We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry the Fed may be forced to ease again before it begins hiking rates,

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