The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments, ... As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move. |
The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments. As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move. |
The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring. |
The main thing holding back the economy in the past year and a half has been a lack of business confidence, and now we're seeing these surveys with a fairly optimistic take on the economy. The non-manufacturing survey certainly reflects the general increase in confidence, and that's a self-fulfilling thing. |
The market has some adjustment to do, but it will be more of a slow leak than a pop. |
The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed. |
The market is kind of like a four-year old kid in a toy store, |
The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings, ... They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath. |
The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings. They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath. |
The markets have forgotten two lessons from prior natural disasters. |
The national economy usually weathers these storms with relatively minor damage. Second, the hurricane is a 'supply shock' -- a disruption to productive potential -- not a 'demand shock.' The same factors that threaten growth -- higher commodity prices, shipping bottlenecks, reduced local productive capacity -- also threaten inflation. |
The number itself wasn't very surprising, ... (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments last week that the trade gap might start getting smaller raised attention and some hopes. But I didn't agree with him about that. |
The one thing that companies can do quickly without laying people off is reduce the number of hours per week; as the economy slows, that's the natural place for a company to cut back. It's a little harder to pull back quickly on job hiring. |
The reason the recovery was so feeble was you still had these hangover effects from the real estate and banking sectors, ... Real estate was still reeling from excess capacity and the whole thrift industry had been decimated by bad loans. |
The reason the recovery was so feeble was you still had these hangover effects from the real estate and banking sectors. Real estate was still reeling from excess capacity and the whole thrift industry had been decimated by bad loans. |