166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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This is a solid (GDP) release and should support the dollar's gains from earlier this morning,

There really has not been justification for the dollar rally to happen exclusively versus the euro, especially because euro zone data has been kind of positive and Japanese data has kind of languished in a funk,

Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears, ... Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.

Everybody is spinning it in their own direction, ... The end result is the same trends remain in place: dollar weakness, euro strength and the yen strong, but not so strong as the euro.

The euro can go pretty far -- when currencies correct, they have a tendency to do that, ... But I don't see the recent move as dramatic or unexpected, and I don't think it's out of line with fundamentals.

I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.

Every time you see a number that shows prices decelerating, immediately you have to think of sluggish re-hiring, ... It means companies will still be closely guarding the bottom line and will be slow to add to labor.

It's the same meat, but with a different gravy, ... The real guts of the Fed's statement is very much unchanged.

What I call a dollar crisis is when you have a big, negative feedback loop, with international investors spooked purely because of the currency, shedding U.S. assets, which would be more dollar negative, and it would just feed on itself,

We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well, ... There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.

There's a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we've had, ... I think they are going to move to a bias to ease policy again, but I'd look for the ease somewhere else. It won't be a rate cut.

If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated, ... That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.

A turnaround in manufacturing has not been signaled anywhere else, so I guess I'm not as excited about this number as the markets seem to be, ... I would like to see this confirmed in another month of data.

Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?

Even if the Fed got very concerned about these headwinds -- business investment, consumer confidence, stock market frailty -- they'd be asking themselves if cutting another 25 basis points [one-quarter percentage point] would do any good whatsoever, ... That I seriously question.

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