166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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[Policy makers'] concern is that we're still only forming a bottom and that the process is still very fragile. Their concern is not for data in December and November...They're concerned about January, February and March, which will show continuing job losses, less spending and less income.

It's always been very important to listen to CEOs. When you've got guys that run companies nervous about demand, they put off investing.

This really reduces the chance of a cyclical bounce in spending, which is what we typically expect to see in a recovery.

Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.

You can really think of productivity as magic fairy dust to sprinkle over growth to allow growth without inflation. That's really the way the Fed sees it.

I'm not in the 'V-shaped' camp. I definitely think we're going to get recovery, [but] the trajectory of that growth is going to be really low.

If you look back at the data we had in July and August, they were not very positive. Even before Sept. 11, we weren't seeing growth anywhere, except in housing and [automobile sales].

The 'new economy' was a new beast to some extent, and the Fed was too lenient in terms of letting consumer exuberance get ahead of itself. They should have been moderating growth in 1997 and '98.

I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down.

This is undeniably good news. The crucial question going forward is going to be if the rise in confidence is reflected in more spending on the part of the consumer, or if it's simply a patriotic rally.

Certainly this Christmas shopping season is going to make for a lot of very negative headlines. The concern is that this [weakness] will be a self-reinforcing phenomenon, but the confidence numbers indicate that may not happen.

The next couple of months will be absolutely crucial. If we can get through this, we're going to have growth that will be consumer-led next year.

The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the Fed. The rate cuts that the Fed is putting through are only hitting the short curve; they're only psychological.

In a typical recession, you see people...consolidate their domestic balance sheets. Instead, spending [has been] as robust as before, and that's hurt domestic balance sheets. We're really at a point where the consumer is squeezing water out of a stone. It doesn't provide the ground for a robust recovery.

I'm not presuming they'll be aggressively cutting rates [this year] if we see data turning around. But traditionally, the Fed holds rates low for a year and a half after a recession, and usually continues to cut throughout the beginning of a recovery.

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