166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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The consumer is the last support here, and it's not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.

Today's report was a case of familiar culprits -- apparel prices continue to put downward pressure on inflation, and housing and medical care continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace.

I still don't expect a double dip [into recession], and I don't think the consumer will turn around [and stop spending], but I do take that confidence number very seriously.

[Investors take the number seriously] so you have to view it as being not very good news, ... But I'm not a fan of it. It's so new, and it doesn't seem to correlate with overall output.

You had big components down that should not be down, such as appliances, furniture and building materials. These should be stronger given the robust housing market.

People's outlook for the economy changes much faster than the underlying state of the economy. The Fed tries to keep its eye on the larger ball and not on the ping-pong ball of the stock market.

This shows our big reliance on imports and foreign capital. As the dollar weakens, that becomes a more and more expensive habit. It makes our imports more expensive, makes the trade deficit wider, makes us even more dependent on foreign capital, weakening the dollar, on and on -- it's a vicious cycle.

Stocks usually lead us out of a recession, but not this time. That throws in a whole new level of uncertainty about how businesses are going to behave. We don't know if there will be enough business confidence without stocks coming back.

The Fed really comes in in situations where the capital markets stop functioning. This not that situation. They're functioning just fine -- they're just really negative.

We had a couple of gains in the sector, but ... there's a difference between a bounce and a sustained level of gains. That's one of the things we're trying to find out, and it looks [right now] more like we had a bounce.

Oil prices are volatile enough that you can't focus on one day's move. But later in the year, a combination of robust global [economic] recovery and tension in the Middle East are really ingredients for a big spike in oil prices, and that can truly spell disaster for an economy.

A lot of people don't understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It's the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be seen how clearly that will translate into actual activity.

I don't think there's really any doubt the housing market remains extremely robust and growing. I had expected housing to fade. Now that we're out of recession, I don't really know what would knock it down at this point.

We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.

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