166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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 I'm not in the 'V-shaped' camp. I definitely think we're going to get recovery, [but] the trajectory of that growth is going to be really low.

 I'm not presuming they'll be aggressively cutting rates [this year] if we see data turning around. But traditionally, the Fed holds rates low for a year and a half after a recession, and usually continues to cut throughout the beginning of a recovery.

 If that's the way the world is, then that's fantastic, because if oil prices go down and the Iraq situation disappears, we're off to the races again. But I think that opinion is at worst naive and at best simply putting on a brave face.

 If we get a downside surprise in retail sales, everybody will shrug it off. We all know that April was a bad month for the economy; the markets are really geared toward May.

 If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.

 If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated, ... That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.

 If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated. That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.

 If you look back at the data we had in July and August, they were not very positive. Even before Sept. 11, we weren't seeing growth anywhere, except in housing and [automobile sales].

 In a typical recession, you see people...consolidate their domestic balance sheets. Instead, spending [has been] as robust as before, and that's hurt domestic balance sheets. We're really at a point where the consumer is squeezing water out of a stone. It doesn't provide the ground for a robust recovery.

 In the near term, markets are getting very excited about the idea of the end of quantitative easing, and that's causing the yen to come under some upward pressure.

 Inflation is looking more benign outside of the energy sector.

 Interest rates are low, the stock market is higher, and we hear all this talk about a tax-cut package,

 It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.

 It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.

 It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed did stick with the positive and ignore the negative, but I can't imagine them taking out the statement [in their August policy announcement] that says 'labor market indicators are mixed,' ... If they are positive, they still have to retain at least that one negative.


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