We think Mr. Greenspan is willing to give the data a chance; it will take bad data to force an August rate hike, |
We think not, but this report muddies the waters for the FOMC. |
We think the relief is temporary; no other data supports the slowdown story, |
We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed. |
We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading. |
We've seen pauses in sales before; (it's) too soon to call this a trend. |
While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower. |
With [manufacturing] activity clearly accelerating...it is hard to see [Monday's ISM] report as anything but bad news for Treasuries and yet more evidence of the need for tighter policy, |
With gas prices still falling, there is every chance that next month will see confidence returning to its summer levels or even hitting new highs, signaling strong spending in [the first quarter]. |
With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook. |
With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth. |
With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year. |
With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly. |