It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own. |
It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend, |
It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend. |
It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth. |
It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained. The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth. |
It is still too early to call the end of the manufacturing slump because the stability of July output might be little more than a seasonal effect, ... this report probably means the worst is over. |
It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country, |
It is tempting to blame the softness of core sales on the surge in gas prices, but we think it is too soon for that. |
It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence. |
It now appears that the trend in jobless claims is stabilizing at about 400,000 per week, ... This is well above the trend level at this time last year, but it is no higher than in the spring. This means that layoffs are continuing at a rapid pace, but they are not accelerating. |
It now seems appropriate to start thinking about a fed funds rate as low as 4 percent by the summer. |
It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike. |
It signals that the labor market has now moved again to center stage in the Fed's analysis and policymaking process. |
It will profoundly damage Bush's ability to accomplish his legislative goals, ... drastic reforms of Social Security and Medicare, which would affect the state of public finances in the long run. |
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this. |