It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction. |
It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging, |
July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications so a correction was due, |
July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications so a correction was due. This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening. |
July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications, so a correction was due, ... This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening. |
July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications, so a correction was due. This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening. |
Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data. |
Katrina and Rita effects still linger, though they are fading, ... Claims will likely rise next week as the full effects of Wilma hit, but the downward trend is very clear. |
Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing, |
Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates. |
Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief. |
Looks to us like tax rebate money is being spent, ... Retailers should have a good autumn. |
Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end. |
Maybe there would have been a rebound this month had it not been for Iraq, but that is beside the point; the message here is that businesses are hunkering down, |
Most notable was the leap in the prices-paid index, ... this is simply a reflection of higher oil prices but it may not have been fully anticipated in the markets. |