We know we're overdue for an influenza pandemic strain, and we know it will occur, but we don't know when or even exactly what virus will cause it. It is possible that the virus won't be H5N1 at all or that this virus will change in a way so that the vaccine under development doesn't work against it. |
We need to identify the source of this child's exposure. It has to be in the environment somewhere and we need to identify that before going ahead in assessing control or (bird) elimination efforts. |
We still urge the elderly and other high-risk groups to be vaccinated. |
We think that this is the most reasoned position, ... you could pick almost any number. |
We're not going to know how lethal the next pandemic is going to be until the pandemic begins. You could pick almost any number. |
What this virus can't do now is move easily from person to person. We worry that it could develop this characteristic of human-to-human transmission. |
What would emerge would be a disease as deadly as avian influenza, which currently has a case fatality rate of over 50%, but that moves as easily as seasonal influenza does from person to person, |
What would emerge would be a disease as deadly as avian influenza, which currently has a case fatality rate of over 50%, but that moves as easily as seasonal influenza does from person to person. |
When the virus shows up in a new country, it doesn't mean that the pandemic has started, it means that the animal disease has spread. |
You could pick almost any number. There is this vast range of numbers, absolutely. One of those numbers will turn out to be right. All of this is guesswork, nobody knows. |
You could pick any number?there's this vast range?and any of these numbers could be right, |
You have to put this in perspective: there have been 180 million birds that have been killed because of this disease and yet we've identified fewer than 200 human cases. |