166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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Whether you're going into business for yourself or not, you're still looking at a very anemic job market.

We've never seen how this index behaves in a recovery; we've never seen it in anything but a downturn. It doesn't surprise me that we'd get record levels, now that manufacturing is recovering.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed did stick with the positive and ignore the negative, but I can't imagine them taking out the statement [in their August policy announcement] that says 'labor market indicators are mixed,' ... If they are positive, they still have to retain at least that one negative.

Almost always the knee-jerk reaction in the markets to positive news on reforms is yen positive. People look at reform as being a positive thing for Japan, one day, hopefully.

We are still seeing some slack in the labor market, in several different places.

Broadly, [the ISM number] reflects what we've been saying for some time: We're on the road to recovery, and we've seen the slowest growth behind us -- but this recovery is going to proceed in fits and starts. It's not going to be a one-way street.

The manufacturing data certainly are positive, but the employment data specifically reinforce the notion that domestic growth is not going be enough to create many jobs.

I firmly believe consumer spending will stay in positive territory, but I think we will see further signs of consumer fatigue as the year progresses.

Consumers will keep us in positive territory, but they're not going to be optimistic enough to fuel economic growth to its potential.

It's not in my forecast, but it's probable, a quarter from now, if we're sitting in the same place we have been, with some uneven signs of recovery, but no real improvement in payrolls and inflation edging lower -- those are the conditions under which the Fed has cut recently.

This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.

Interest rates are low, the stock market is higher, and we hear all this talk about a tax-cut package,

The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline.

The manufacturing sector has been so battered that it's too early to say the troubles are over in that sector. But we're seeing the economy making some kind of a bounce after contracting in April. We have to see now whether or not that continues.

Certainly the economy now looks like it was in better shape in January-April than expected. But these data don't show the economy making any improvement.

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