187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.
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Rubin was a great Treasury Secretary. Nobody in the Bush administration comes close.
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should show signs of stabilizing.
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Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out, ... The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.
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Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out. The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.
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That basically, in my mind, cancels out the benefits of the lower tax rates,
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That's about the right feel for the economy,
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That's something [economists] should have sitting in [the] back of their mind, ... We are not forecasting that, because it's hard to figure out a timing of such an event. You want to see evidence of things falling apart before you predict it. But I think the risks to the economy are greater in 2005 than in 2004.
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That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?
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The adjustment to higher prices has been fairly orderly. It's not a 70's style shock. Oil prices do have an effect on the economy but it's not dramatic. It's a problem but not at the top of the list.
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The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.
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The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.
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The bond market went into this report looking for disaster. I think there's a sense of relief in the bond market.
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The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,
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The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained.
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