He didn't think about the economic world the way most of us do. It made it difficult for him to communicate. His model was fundamentally different from everyone else's. That is what we'll miss. |
He may not be as heavy-handed with policy decisions. The outcomes of the meetings may be more democratic, at least for a time. |
I expect the economy to rebound to above-trend growth. We just hit a soft spot in the second quarter, ... If it turns out that the economy continues to grow below trend ... if the data continue to be as weak as they have been in the past three months, with a sufficient rise in the unemployment rate, you can't rule [a rate cut] out. |
If the Fed study is right, payroll employment would have to slow to well below that. |
It was a toast, not a roast. |
It was the same policy message but with a little innovation in communication. |
On the other hand, it's possible the first quarter's growth was just a one-time inventory rebound and that we're now stuck in a range of 1.5 to 2 percent growth. If that continues, it will be much like the early 90s, |
On the other hand, it's possible the first quarter's growth was just a one-time inventory rebound and that we're now stuck in a range of 1.5-to-2 percent growth. If that continues, it will be much like the early 90s, |
So far it's been an easy roll, with interest rates rising at a steady gradual pace. |
That appointment got people scurrying back to their probability tables for the next Fed chairman, thinking the net might be wider and the person picked might be less credentialed, and that got people nervous. |
The balance of aggregate demand and sustainable supply today and the distinct possibility that labor and product markets will tighten further suggest an unacceptable risk of overheating and, therefore, higher inflation in the future, |
The challenge is in making day-to-day policy at a time when mistakes are most likely to be made. |
The Committee continues to see the removal of accommodation as the focus of policy and has given no indication that it is close to the end of that process, |
The difference with this disaster is that we have an energy shock. |
The easy job has been done, unfortunately. Mistakes are more likely when you get closer to the end, not knowing where the end is, and that's where we are. |