343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.

The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.

If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,

This is a significant decline in confidence, ... Presumably the combination of higher interest rates and stagnant stock prices lies behind the moves, but the key point is that the steady rise in recent months has abruptly begun to reverse.

In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.

It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.

There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.

The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.

The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.

This may mark the start of an upturn in exports, but it's too soon to be sure.

At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.

Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates.

His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.

This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.

[To be sure,] it would be premature to argue this is the start of a new, hyper-weak trend in home sales, ... Nonetheless, these numbers do send an unambiguous signal that the housing market is now past its peak.

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